Unexpectedly, none of the ten college football teams that are still unbeaten are in the SEC.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, five schools have between a 30% and 50% chance of making it to Atlanta after eight weeks, making the SEC perhaps the most open conference. After defeating Alabama, Tennessee had the largest playoff riser (22%) while the Crimson Tide’s chances of making it to the CFP fell by 25%.
Additionally, the Friday night matchup between Boise State and UNLV will have a huge impact on both the Mountain West Conference standings and the Group of 5 playoff positions, even if no game in Week 9 will have a greater impact on the CFP race than LSU vs. Texas A&M.
The 12-team CFP has done just that, including bringing up Boise State, UNLV, Indiana, Kansas State, and… Army and Navy? There have been both unexpected candidates and significant letdowns.
Both were targeted this week by college football experts Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg, who have been speaking with sources to find out how they feel and what plots to expect in Week 9.
Which team has been the biggest disappointment this season?
Dinich: If we’re handing out grades, you can’t spell FSU without the F. The dropoff has been a plummet — from the top of the ACC to an afterthought not just in the conference race, but in its own state, where rival Miami is now king.
It’s one thing to swing and miss a few times in the transfer portal, but the issues in Tallahassee clearly run deeper. There were 82 players who returned from last season’s ACC championship team — many of whom coach Mike Norvell recruited.
What were supposed to be strengths are weaknesses. Florida State returned the most experienced offensive line in the ACC with 190 starts, and the Seminoles are averaging 2.5 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per play. They’re averaging 13.7 offensive points.
Where is the leadership on the field? It left with the 10 NFL draft picks.
And to add to it all, this is the school that has banged its fist on the table the most about deserving more money from the ACC. This is the school that is suing its own conference. And now it’s the school that has won one game.
Rittenberg: FSU is undeniably the answer here. As a Power 4 coach recently wondered, “How do you go from being in the ACC championship game to this bad?” But Oklahoma is definitely in the most disappointing team picture. When I did my future power rankings for teams in June and put Oklahoma at No. 16, I heard more from Sooners fans than any other base. My forecast wasn’t really that dire and Oklahoma has made some real strides on defense this fall, but the problems on offense run deep — far beyond the coordinator change Brent Venables made this week. Even Venables called the unit “an abomination” so far.
Injuries certainly have been a factor, especially at wide receiver, but the struggles along the offensive line, a traditional strength under longtime assistant Bill Bedenbaugh, jump out as especially concerning. The line had significant turnover from 2023, both to the NFL and to the transfer portal, and Oklahoma’s personnel return hasn’t really panned out. OU has used six starting line combinations in seven games with only two players — North Texas transfer Febechi Nwaiwu and holdover Jacob Sexton — starting every game. The Sooners rank 132nd out of 133 teams in sacks allowed (29) and 124th in yards per rush (3.07).
Dinich: You know what else is an “abomination?” USC losing at Maryland. Not just losing, but blowing a 14-point lead along the way. Someone needs to tape the word “finish” to each USC helmet because the Trojans have now lost their four games by a combined 14 points — all with a lead in the second half. For all of the early season hype about the defensive improvement under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the defense gave up two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter in College Park. For this to happen at Maryland — in front of one of the country’s most apathetic fan bases, much of which left before their Terrapins won — was embarrassing. Coach Lincoln Riley still gets a bit of a pass here only because of what he inherited and knowing that this was not supposed to be their year. Next season, the pressure is on to come out on the right side of these games.
Rittenberg: Michigan shouldn’t get a pass in the disappointment category, seeing how it so rarely completes them (see what I did there, HD?). The Wolverines lost a notable group of players and coaches to the NFL, but the whole idea in promoting offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to head coach — and Moore promoting quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell to offensive coordinator — was designed for minimal disruption. Michigan has had three starting quarterbacks in seven games, and ranks 109th nationally in total QBR. Even though Jack Tuttle posted a team season high for passing yards (208) against Illinois, he regularly missed open targets for big gains. Moore didn’t publicly name a starter for this week’s game against Michigan State, although Tuttle, who sources told me was always seen as the team’s top option once he recovered from an elbow injury, should get another chance.
The defense is also a bit of a head-scratcher, given top-end talent at all three levels. Michigan is 96th in pass yards allowed and 57th in pass efficiency defense. It’s fair to wonder if first-year coordinator Wink Martindale, who has been in the NFL for the past 20 seasons, is getting the most from the personnel.
“He’s a great defensive playcaller, but college is a little different,” a Big Ten coordinator said. “The NFL is such a pass-happy league, there are some things you don’t have to worry about.”
Rittenberg: Clemson coach Dabo Swinney left Atlanta with more optimism than most, despite a 34-3 loss to Georgia. The Tigers missed opportunities from their very first offensive play, which Swinney called “a layup” for a 20- to 30-yard gain but Cade Klubnik threw low to Phil Mafah. “They were pissed,” Swinney said of his players, “because physically, we matched up. The scoreboard is one thing, but the scoreboard doesn’t tell the whole story. They came away from the game with frustration in themselves but also confident.”
Clemson has since delivered with 40 or more points in five of its past six games, which Swinney attributes to continuity both with personnel and coordinator Garrett Riley, the emergence of Antonio Williams and a deep and reliable receiver group, Mafah’s bruising consistency and an offensive line that has become “very connected” under Matt Luke. Swinney described Klubnik as “a completely different guy,” both physically as he has added necessary mass, but also with his decision-making and overall mental approach.
“He hadn’t really had a lot of football adversity in his life,” Swinney said of Klubnik, referring to last season. “Three state championships, winner of the Elite 11 and then the first time you come in, you’re the MVP of the [ACC] championship game. You look at quarterbacks last year, Jayden Daniels was a fifth-year guy, [Michael] Penix was a sixth-year guy, Bo Nix was a fifth-year guy and they couldn’t fire him quick enough at Auburn. Kade is a really, really talented player. Not everybody’s going to be a Heisman candidate as a true freshman or a first-year starter.”
Another key development is Williams, whom Swinney called “an absolute beast of a receiver.” Clemson used to count on having one or two of those per season but endured a drought until now.
“Antonio can play any [wide receiver] position,” Swinney said. “We’ve got a few guys that are dynamic like that, and they give us a lot of different skill sets across the board.”
Dinich: Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson watched a lot of Clemson film to prepare for the Oct. 12 game against the Tigers, a 49-14 loss, and he said the biggest difference in Clemson this season is the improvement on the offensive line, where he credited Luke with having a huge impact on the success.
Clawson also said Klubnik was playing better, and it’s clear Clemson was more comfortable in the second season under Riley.
“Part of the reason Clemson is better is their offensive line to me this year is playing at a whole different level,” Clawson said. “Matt Luke is doing a phenomenal job with that group. Klubnik got bigger, faster, stronger. He just looks more athletic. I think they’re more skilled at the receiver position.”
Clawson said Clemson has reverted to being a team that is tough to defend in both the run and the pass.
“When Clemson was good and winning national championships, it was pick your poison — try to double some of their receivers and they hand the ball to Travis Etienne,” he said. “Or try to outnumber the run and Trevor Lawrence and the group is going to carve you up. So they’re back to being able to do both.”
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