Sean Manaea intended to respond to the New York Mets’ qualifying offer with a “thanks, but no thanks.” Scott Boras would automatically chuckle back at them when Pete Alonso handed him the phone. The choice about Luis Severino was somewhat more up for debate.
According to sources, he will join Manaea and Alonso, but he has until Tuesday to make an official decision.
Good for Sevy for believing in his abilities. Shame on the situation he’s in that’ll present him with far fewer opportunities.
Mets free agent Luis Severino won’t have his pick of teams in free agency and might regret not returning on the one-year deal
A return to the Mets on a multi-year contract isn’t out of the question even if he does reject the qualifying offer. In fact, it’s not such a bad wager to believe the Mets wait out his free agency and look to bring him back on a bargain. He’ll be rejecting $21.05 million. It’s a steep price for a player of his ability and more important track record of getting hurt. The goal of rejecting the QO will be to secure more overall money.
A two-year contract with a player option could be the first scenario. One option to avoid a long-term commitment to him while allowing him to remain in New York is to offer him a salary of $15–20 million with a raise in the second year. After all, he hasn’t yet represented any other major league city.
Teams must decide whether players are deserving of penalties when it comes to the QO. The revenue sharing recipients, who make up about half of the league, are the lowest group and vary based on the payroll from the prior year. These teams are the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, and Rays, per MLB Trade Rumors.
Those teams would lose their third-highest draft pick if they signed Severino and no other player that rejected the QO. It’s the least harsh penalty. Many unappealing destinations, the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles probably make the most sense and are in need of a starting pitcher. A few others could be in on Severino as well, but typically tend to keep their payroll down. Here’s looking at you, Cleveland Guardians.
In fact, Severino was well-positioned to capitalize on the success this offseason. All of next season, he will be 31. No one should sign a long-term contract with him after he has shown himself to be healthy and effective for a year. It makes sense that he could have been concerned about earning some stability this time around given the age gap between a pitcher who is 31 and one who is 32.
Given that so many talented players will turn down the qualifying offer, Severino will be best served by the Mets and one of those revenue-sharing teams. The Mets wouldn’t be a good fit if he were traveling from another team due to the sanctions.
Signing just one player who rejected the qualifying offer costs them $1 million plus their second and fifth-highest draft picks. They don’t get penalized for bringing him back.
In a free agent class filled with pitching talent, it feels like Severino is going to end up getting paid less than he’d like on a shorter contract than he believes he has already earned and maybe stuck in an uncompetitive situation. Aren’t the Oakland Athletics claiming they’re going to spend some money next year? Oh, boy.
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