Cincinnati, who began the 2024 season as a 5.5-point betting underdog at Colorado, has worked its way into Big 12 title contention, but there is still much work to be done. Cincinnati has a 31.9% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor.
The Bearcats are 0-1 all-time against CU with that lone loss coming in 1977. A win would make Cincinnati bowl eligible for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, and leave them with one loss needed by Texas Tech to control their path to a Big 12 Championship berth.
In the eighth game, two teams with identical records are competing for a Big 12 Championship. “We talk about that because there’s a lot on the line,” UC head coach Scott Satterfield stated on Tuesday. “Everyone else speaks about all the other things.
For us, it all comes down to planning ahead and being well-prepared. Opting against their defense, offense, and kicking game, then practicing that strategy this week and into the game with a strong sense of confidence in it. Everything else is for the media and fans. It’s all about the ball for us.
The conference’s second-best scoring offense welcomes in the Big 12’s best scoring defense so far. Something has to give at the feet of the Rocky Mountains.
Defensive Key To The Game: Sack Sanders
It’s no secret how Colorado likes to move the football this season. Shedeur Sanders has been one of the most effective quarterbacks in the country and is having his highest-graded PFF season since coming into the sport (90.9 overall).
He looks the part of a projected No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft and the stats match: Seventh nationally as a team in passing yards per game (324.0), while Sanders is second nationally in completions per game (27.86), fourth in completion percentage (72.2%), fifth in passing yards (2,268), and passing touchdowns (19).
Along the way, he will give Travis Hunter, the standout wide receiver and cornerback, and his other outstanding receivers a lot of food. Cincinnati needs to come up with a quick, effective pass-rush strategy to stop the inescapable downfield plays.
“He gets outside, and all he’s doing is buying time,” Satterfield said about Sanders, who has a long 2.88 second time to throw this season. “He’s buying time for those guys to either go deep or come across, and then he has the athleticism and accuracy to be able to put it on them. We have to stay in coverage. I think sometimes you have a tendency to think ‘Oh, man, the quarterback is out.
Let me come out of coverage’. He’ll [Sanders] make you pay, so you better stay in coverage and see what’s going to happen. But he’s looking up the field to try to make the big plays, and he’s had a bunch of them outside the pocket.”
Sanders moves away from pressure for the same reason every other quarterback does: It’s way easier to create big plays. His splits are stark when throwing under pressure versus being kept clean (83.2 NFL passer rating under pressure, 119.2 rating when kept clean).
Cincinnati will get 40 points hung on them if they can’t get to Sanders consistently. Enter a Colorado offensive line that has seen their QB get sacked 25 times this season (t-129th nationally). He was sacked 5 and 4 times in the Buffs’ two losses this season. Getting at least four sacks on Saturday is crucial to a win (UC is 33rd nationally with 17 sacks this season).
Any opportunity to force more runs from a rough CU rushing attack is a winning formula (2.7 yards per carry this season, 60th or worse in rushing EPA/success rate).
Offensive Key To The Game: Balanced Red-Zone Execution
Cincinnati should have a special teams advantage in this game, which means continued strength in the field position battle. That’s a major factor in a game that Cincinnati likely wants to dominate time of possession to keep Sanders and that offense on the sideline.
Can Cincinnati bust through the Buffs’ red-zone brick wall? It’s the biggest roadblock to victory for Cincinnati.
Colorado has a stout defense, especially in the red zone (eighth in score rate, 35th in TD rate), and allows just 21.9 PPG overall (47th nationally). It’s a rough matchup for a Cincinnati offense that’s much better this season, but still in the doldrums of national red-zone scoring (107th in score rate).
A fully healthy offensive line from UC gets a hornet’s nest thrown at them here as Colorado’s fully turned around a defense that leads the Big 12 in sacks (21) and TFLs (49). Getting at least 150-200 rushing yards against an average ground defense (57th in rush success rate allowed, 52nd in EPA) would go a long way in keeping the offense balanced and some pressure (literally and figuratively) off Brendan Sorsby.
“It will be a great environment, and you need to drown everything out and really focus on exactly what those 11 guys are doing on that side of the ball before you snap it and have a plan,” Satterfield said about Sorsby the road atmosphere. “You have to know where you are going with the ball, and I think he does a great job with that. I believe that our guys do play with poise. We’re going to have to play disciplined football, Colorado has done a good job of winning the turnover margin and we need to win the turnover margin.
“That’s going to be critical and that comes down to quarterback play a lot of times, and Brendan [Sorsby] has played in big games before and has come through. I have a lot of confidence in him, but I do believe he is surrounded by a bunch of really good players that have a lot of good confidence as well. So, I think when you put all that together, it gives us a great chance to win the game.”
Leave a Reply